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The gun market recaptured a key marker in August, but couldn’t reverse a prevailing downward slide.
The FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) ran 1,091,342 sales-related checks last month, according to a new National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) report released on Wednesday. That is an increase over July, which was the first to fall below the million mark in six years.
“NSSF is encouraged to see the adjusted NICS background checks top 1 million in the month August once again,” Mark Oliva, an NSSF spokesman, said in a statement. “We know there is a strong and continued interest in lawful firearm ownership and these figures bear out the truth that Second Amendment rights are valued.”
However, the number of NICS checks also decreased by 9.9 percent year-over-year.
While gun-related background checks rebounded between July and August, that was likely a result of a seasonal uptick–given gun sales traditionally slow during the summer–rather than a market recovery. After all, July 2025’s checks only fell 8.1 percent compared to the previous July, and August’s checks were down 9.9 percent year-over-year.
The continued downturn shows no signs of slowing despite falling back below pre-pandemic levels and poses a significant risk for the gun industry. Economic uncertainty, such as the softening jobs market, and perceptions that Republican control of the federal government means new control is unlikely, have combined to blunt demand for guns. While some states, such as Colorado, have experienced a surge in sales-related checks following new gun restrictions, that hasn’t driven enough demand to stop the nationwide decline.
The slide has been significant, especially in the AR-15 market.
“During the height of the, you know, sales surge 2020 to 2021, we shipped over 30,000 lowers ourselves,” Russell Phagan, director of KE Arms, told The Reload. “Now, we’re down to around 750 to 1000 a year. And going from, at the height, around 50 employees to now three.”
Exact gun sales metrics are impossible since it is illegal for the federal government to register firearms.
NICS checks don’t represent a one-to-one metric for gun sales for several reasons. For one, neither federal law nor most states require NICS checks on used gun sales between private citizens. For another, twenty-eight states allow those with gun-carry permits (which require a NICS check to obtain) to bypass additional NICS checks during sales.
However, most experts believe NICS checks are the best gauge for gun sales. That’s because nearly all sales that licensed gun dealers conduct must go through a check. And licensed dealers are the only ones who can sell new guns to the public.
Still, the raw NICS numbers put out by the FBI can be misleading because they include a substantial number of non-sales checks. That’s why NSSF uses a proprietary formula to adjust the numbers in an effort to single out just the checks related to sales.
“The adjusted NICS data were derived by subtracting out NICS purpose code permit checks and permit rechecks used by states for CCW permit application checks as well as checks on active CCW permit databases,” the group said in a statement. “NSSF started subtracting permit rechecks in February 2016.”
NSSF said the difference between the raw numbers and adjusted numbers was about 730,000 checks.
The group said Texas, Florida, California, Pennsylvania, and Virginia saw the most gun-sales-related NICS checks in August. NSSF said checks pushing back above 1 million are emblematic of Americans’ commitment to gun ownership.
“These figures are more than data points,” Oliva said. “They represent Americans from all walks of life who are, quite literally, investing in their safety, security and freedom.”